Jonathan Caine has never really been separated from the Conservative Party for too long a period. His spell at Bell Pottinger was short-lived – now he’s to return to CCHQ to become Owen Paterson’s “Chief of Staff”. It’s a role he will be well used to. He performed similar roles for previous Conservative NI spokesmen in the past – even prior to the local Conservatives being recognised.
Jonathan was always luke-warm, at best, about the local Conservatives’ attempts to organise and contest elections in Northern Ireland. At heart he’s more of an Ulster Unionist. He has been very keen on the UCUNF project and during the early days of negotiation between the Conservatives here, and the UUP, his Bell Pottinger email address would mysteriously appear on the cc list of peeps on the Conservative side.
Owen Polley over on Three Thousand Versts welcomes the return of Caine. However, I’m not so sure. His empathy tends in the direction of the UUP and its reintegration with the Conservative Party. He has never seemed overly convinced of the equal citizenship argument – that only the replacement of the politics of the tribe will result in the fundamental change required in Northern Ireland politics.
In short, the problem with Jonathan Caine lies in his being, according to Owen Paterson, “one of the foremost experts on Northern Ireland politics”. One could argue that an expert in Northern Ireland’s politics is the last thing Owen Paterson or Northern Ireland needs.
Perhaps his “expert” status allows him to ajudge Northern Ireland’s politics as the stunted politics of the swamp. However, unfortunately, I’m of the view that Caine’s life-long hobby is Northern Ireland politics. He knows the characters, the nuances, the local flavours. He’s like a Warhammer character collector.
That is part of the problem. There are enough experts on Northern Ireland politics here already and the hobby is, ultimately, pointless.
However, I’m prepared to give Jonathan the benefit of the doubt – for now.
I suspect that JC’s appointment indicates that Cameron is signalling that he has become very serious about the NI project and is unhappy with the progress to date in actually selecting candidates. What will the UUP’s make of it?
If we assume that the delay is not on the Conservative side then it is down to Sir Reg and his men. The question is why?
Concern that the Conservatives are bringing in serious new credible talent across a number of seats?
A lack of UUP applicants? Rumour has it they are few and far between and in many cases not that credible.
A cover for procrastinating over the one seat they have and not wanting to confront Hermon?
A combination of the above.
If your position is that it is good for the Conservative and Unionist project then I agree, however it is defintely not good for your go it alone stance. That will require a poor performance in the election.
Emanonon, don’t get me wrong – I certainly do not want a poor performance in the election by the Conservatives here or anywhere. However, I am expecting that at least 9 of the 18 candidates put forward are from the Conservative side of this partnership – and the other candidates are fully signed up to UUP integration into a non-sectarian, national Conservative Party. My role is really neither here nor there. I’m a failed politician. However, the UUP is clearly dragging its feet and Reg is showing no leadership whatsoever. There is clear dithering over South Belfast and FST and the Sylvia situation is absurd.
My hope is that Caine will make the UUP see sense and will assert Conservative authority. There is a clear talent gulf between the local Conservatives and the UUP. The selected Conservative candidates are clearly more articulate. Moreover defectors – like Ian Parsley – are attracted to the Conservative side of the relationship rather than the UUP side.
Cameron has to establish the Conservative Party here and make clear that this is a new, exciting brand. If he does that the voters will support him here. However, my concern is that Jonathan may be too close to the UUP and too conciliatory. That may mean more dithering and more ineffectual leadership from Reg. The result will mean more of the same from a lame duck UUP. That will spell electoral disaster.
Caine is here to kill off the local Tories.
It’s what he tried to do under Mayhew, Major and Mawhinney, particularly when the locals wanted to stand in the Forum elections in 1996 and Central Office didn’t want them to.
He worked closely with Trimble and David Campbell, which is what he will be doing again.